Will UP too have a reversal in the election throwing the present Govt Out


Just like the trend of recent elections (except Bihar) the exit polls show even UP might favour Akilesh Yadav.  Even though this cant be confirmed now.  Its obvious that people are wanting a change in the CM’s Chair.  We should also wait and see what would be Rahul Gandhi’s Effect.  He has given his heart and Soul into UP campaign, putting everyone in his family.  Whatever happens, there would be one thing clear, Congress might add some point to say “Rahul Gandhi is victorious” even if they win only 25-30 seats.  If this would be the case, there would be a serious question of the Gandhi Family’s influence in their traditional constituencies which they have been holding for generations.

On the other hand, this would probably be the starting point for Akhilesh Yadav, young SP leader who somehow attracts me because of his direct approach and probably campaign covering the grass root people and no big stage speeches.  This might be a litmus test for his political career too.  I am sure he would not like people like me, because they are against people speaking English and people who are computer dependent.  But this strategy seems to have worked well atleast in the exit poll level.  There is one line of Mulayam Singh which made lacs of people to register their names in the employment offices.  He has promised, if they are brought to power they would give INR 1000 per month for all unemployed people.  This is a bold step, not sure if this would be done, but if this is going to happen and if they have any govt insurance scheme then we are seeing localised “Social Security”.  Till today, no Chief Minister, including Narendra Modi of Gujarat had the guts to do so.  Probably this would be some way closer to others to follow and declare something.

Scenarios :

If SP gets a thumping majority to form a govt on its own then a) very bad news for congress b) there may be the start of “Third Front” because a decade back, Mulayam Singh was one of the supporter of Third Front.  Akhilesh would take care of State politics and Mulayam would come to the centre full time with some Big Ticket Hopes.  c) they will have major say in the president/vice president election – if they are supporting UPA-2

IF SP and Cong has to join hands, then there would be a real rough patch, and they would be doing exactly the every day management style just like the centre.  I personally feel if this scenario comes, the relationship might not last more than 6-8 months.

If BSP is completely washed, there is going to be witch hunting happening in BSP, there would be lots of cases that would come for investigation on disproportionate assets, may it be the architecture built, statues etc..

Overall, its going to be another interesting day in Indian Politics where the power’lergic people fight out either in cash or in kind to retain or capture their dream positions.  I am not that open hearted to say its a victory for Democracy, but I can very well say – In India NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBILE.


Sathish Sampath

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